Reducing the business of the year mathematical analysis of entrepreneurship


entrepreneurs success is a small probability event, it is difficult to make big money; and the venture capital and the media, the success is a high probability event, but I do not know who happened on it, so the position is not the same. Many situations are chaotic and unpredictable. Why do you want to start a business? How to turn a small probability event into a high probability event?. Author: life three poison

editor’s note: This article is the author of the three drugs for the well-known website and web game company founder, had previously been a senior editor of IT media, witnessed the early development of China’s internet.

"lottery is not understand mathematics people tax." This is the conclusion of a British mathematician to the lottery.

lottery buyer for the individual, which is less likely to award will not happen, but to buy lottery group, is bound to happen overnight legend.

this is the conflict between mathematics and human intuition. Many people use a few dollars to obtain a the impossible hope, every hope attributed the failure to his bad luck, and enter the next hope, but in the strict mathematical projections, these already doomed to failure. That’s what I’ve seen in most of the last 10 years.

return to the topic of entrepreneurship, if the reader read a few articles before me, there will be an illusion that entrepreneurship can easily make people become millionaires. In fact, the only winners can be reported by the media, and the losers will rarely appear, which is called the Matthew effect, a full-scale invasion of mass media, will let you have an illusion that entrepreneurship is the most fashionable and most likely to succeed.

then we’ll get math to restore the most fashionable thing:

chaos theory

Most of group

human behavior, such as the stock market, foreign exchange market, a quarter of popular clothing, such as a large outbreak of "Thai" embarrassed, have been attributed to a modern science called chaos (chaos) subject, and the subject of the most famous story is the butterfly effect. While the business is definitely a part of the chaotic system, so we don’t have to look at every year, Barron to forecast the stock, also do not have to listen to the teacher Li to predict future business, basically because these predictions in the chaotic system has been strictly proved ineffective and inaccurate.

probability theory

1, the small probability event is equal to the impossible event;

2, the probability of the event is equal to the inevitable event.

in a city where I was working in the game industry, I have seen the statistics of the game development team is about 150, assuming that all cities such as China, there are 10, each game development group

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